This smeared sky with clouds at the edge of weeping, and this heavy and foggy weather as a stomachache like the day after a party, excite my bulimia of movies, and fertilizes an atmosphere suitable for writing, reading and working!
Under these sunday’s auspices, before swaddle myself with films, I’ll start by drawing up an inventory of my positions, and my views on my strategy. It will be disguised in a controversy today, with two protagonists: Las Casas and Sepulveda, who respectively preach for an optimistic downtrend and a pessimistic uptrend.
For reminding, I am short on the pound and the euro against the Australian and American dollars.
Sepulveda : I added three oscillators, considering that the market is still in its weekly lethargy; they are all in low areas, but they retain a small potential bearish. The prize distribution has morphed the lateral range in a rising wedge, so I am wary of the support area at 1.7730. In addition, the trend on pound against the American dollar is at its end; this huge downtrend has lasted too long and chained 5 sessions of losses last week. A correction or a stop of the trend would cause a lot of buyings and buyings back. And to remain coherent, on GBPCAD the range has held. So we have the pound on a supply area, a pound at the end of its marathon, and we are at then end of the month. I think the week will be bleak, so we should set our stop at break even, or look for a point in order to hedge our position, and thus, block a gain that will be reinvest later. It is wiser.
Las Casas : sure, the pound must correct against the dollar, but if the fear is leading our thought all the time, we will never take advantage of any trend. I recognize that it’s a tricky situation on the pound. But I think that this last week of August could keep going in the same way that the month started; I’m more afraind about the reactions that will occur in September and October. Take a hedging order there could be counterproductive if the currency keep running down. We shall let the market goes and be confident in its fall. And in the worst case we could find a way to leave the position with a small loss.
Thus I choose the optimistic faith in the downtrend of Las Casas, but tinted of wisdom, considering the arguments of Sepulveda.
To simplify : I move my stop down on my position at 1.7890; I think the 1.7850-1.7880 area can block a short-term correction. My stop should be protected. I’m only earning 100 euros on this stop. I have two choices : take a single signal with a large stop to maximize my success rate, or take four signals on markets tops with a tight stop to maximize my profitability. The second option will be complicated and will consume a lot of time to find the perfect timing. And I will only have this free time end of September or October once installed in Sofia. So I choose the first.
Actually, I’ll try to find time for a small M30 signal, on a market top; otherwise, it will be a trade with a large stop that I will pyramiding; and we will see. Once that signal will be taken, I will think to move back my stop above a more far top to let the market breathe.
Chart about monitoring of my strategy :
We see that the current gain is quite well. It’s around 330 euros, whether a 0,33 reward ratio. The biggest drawdown has been 90 euros, and for now the risk is set at +100 euros.
I wrote last week :
So, today I cashed in 220 euros, and I still have an open position with three trades, and set a common stop at 1.35, that currently protect 800 euros for the first daily trade gain, about 80 euros for the initial one, and a very nice 370 euros for my last one taken at 1.3554 with a stop at 1.37 dollar. Wheter a current total risk of 2 140 euros, for a protected gain of 1 250 euros and 220 euros cashed. I’ll be glad when this strategy will award me twice my risk.
This week, announced on Twitter, I took a new short trade on the euro. I came in at 1.3321 with a stop set at 1.3450 and a 1 000 euros risk, again.
So my short position is composed by four trades :
– 3,7 k @1,3840 (500 euros of risk)
– 42 k à @1,3767 (1 000 euros of risk)
– 93 k @1,3554 (1 000 euros of risk)
– 104 k @1,3321 (1 000 euros of risk).
Some details :
The stop of the position is currently set at 1.3450. All my trades are in the green zone, except the last one. Whether a blocked gain of 1 830,92 – 1 000 = 830,92 euros.
I earned 220 euros thanks to my last week pyramides.
As said on Twitter, I have done a pyramiding every 25 pips. I will count them when I will close them, at the enf of the daily trend. For now, 3 new orders have been taken to pyramide, with a risk of 84, 78 and 71 euros.
The floating gain is 4 678,91 euros for a maximal risk taken of 1 500 euros. Whether a floating performance of 93% on this strategy, with a 20% risk per trade.
I confess I’m hesitating to lighten my position in order to cash out 3 000 euros, whether the double of how much I have risked. But i must hold my plan : I will start to take some earnings if I would succeed to protect 3 000 euros with my stop.
I do hope my GBPAUD strategy will make me earn the same.
I’ve just noticed that the twilight is in a hurry. This article has taken time to be written. The night won’t be in late. I’m going out to shot some Monaco pics under the moon, and i swear to you a happy end of week end !
And to end in the best way :