This Sunday I draw up the weekly table, surrounded by the walls of Antibes’ oldtown. The venal cafe terrace that welcomes me, offers this sculptural Ducati view. It attracts all the attention and my camera’s lense. It vies with some red rearing horses that sublimate the old town and circulate along its precincts.
I enjoy to get myself busy with this article, refreshed by Coke, sated by some black olives, and happy to enjoy this beautiful place. The rich owners of boats docked at the old port and who are wandering in this authentic folklore make me think about Saint Tropez, light years away from the ostensible Monaco which goes to the head of the wealthy landowners.
We feel good here, nobody jealous them. They are respected, known by restaurants owers, according to some hand signals exchanged while they are passing, roofless supercar. I am even glad they are here to fill the few oversights of magic and dreams that distill the old Antibes. The atmosphere is perfect.
What I feared has more or less taken place : the weekly supply area holds up, helped by the big slowdown in the trend on GBPUSD.
Again, I have two choices: (1) if I decide to do nothing, and the price goes up, if I maintain my short long term through, I must raise my stop loss much higher to let the price breathe. The risk is that this stop could be hit. Thereby it will deprive me of a current gain, or even would cause a loss. But if the market finally, after breathing, will fall, I would be in a very comfortable situation. (2) I can decide to hedge, since I’m in the low part of the range; In this case, if the market goes up, it’s gonna block my current gain of about 370 euros, and I would have taken a long position at the bottom of the range, and if the GBPAUD will take the north direction, I would hold it; by doing that, I will have to get rid of the short order. But if the prices will fall, I’ll have to cut my long, which could make a win or a loss.
In weighing the pros and cons: the solution (1) get me out at 0 or negative if all goes wrong, and makes me earn a lot if all goes well. The solution (2) makes me earn money if everything goes wrong, and won’t make me lose if all goes well and I will continue to make money on the downtrend. So the second option is the best after a logical point of view.
Now, from a factual point of view, considering the graphics, no one solution seems to be better, because we are at a point where the odds are 50-50. I hold the logical solution, and hedge.
I indicated that last week I moved down the stop to 1.7890 AUD, thinking the 1.7850-80 area would prevent correction from to go higher. Then I will look for an M30 setup on a top.
Actually the monday correction ended at 1.7868. Holding that the 100 euros I earned were too little, and thinking not have time to find a perfect short signal the day after, I have rather decide to do nothing, contrary to the plan. Badly took me, I would have taken this trade finally, with no effort and a sell stop order.
But what happened in my head was simple: I get attached to my GBPAUD position as the graphic situation is beautiful, and if the fall will, it could be my trade of the year. So I preferred to wait to begin pyramiding.
Finally, on Wednesday, according to downtrend, I decided to move down my stop to 1.7845, protecting just over 200 euros.
I decided to take two opportunities in 5 minutes, with a stop at 1.7845. The spread of almost 6 pip prevented me from taking a serie of trade on M1. It’s a pity, the opportunities wasn’t missing. I came out of my two trades by losing -13 and -6 pips; since my initial stop was respectively at 93 and 100 pips, I only lost about twenty euros.
Chart of the evolution of the strategy :
Due to the small loss, floating gain on my position and the actual gain of the strategy are no longer equal.
I took a hedge on Friday night shortly before 10 pm, at 1.7759. This explains why for the moment the risk of my position is set to +400 euros.
This week, as announced on Twitter, I have only taken a new trade that I do not count in my position (I only include D1 trades or those I’ll let it run long).
Whether my short position is still composed of four trades :
– 3,7 k @1,3840 (500 euros risk)
– 42 k à @1,3767 (1 000 euros risk)
– 93 k @1,3554 (1 000 euros risk)
– 104 k @1,3321 (1 000 euros risk).
My position’s stop has been moved downward at 1.3270, whether a blocked gain of about 4 150 euros, and 4 720 euros of positive floating. I thus have been able to block more than 3 000 euros this week. I am going to start to take some benefits if the 1.3150-60 area will be break upward next week. I will close 50%, whether just over 3 000 euros. That’s perfect, it’s the double of my risk.
At my pyramiding, i have carried on my Renko 25, with somehow a very unpleasant slippage due to gap of this week’s beginning. Currently, 7 trades have been openned, from which we have to add my H4 trade. I went in at 1.3153 with a stop set at 1.3220 and risk of 100 euros (25% of my last daily trade blocked gain).
For now, the Renko trades make me earn 285 euros, their stop is set at 1.3220 whether a loss of 28 euros (not at breakeven yet) but I am planning to cloe all at 1.3160 whether a possible gain of about 185 euros, from which we shall remove a small loss on my H4 trade.
I have to tell that I have also openned a short position on GBPCAD, with a stop above 1,85.
And to end with a good sound :